Tag Archives: NATO

Obama At The UN Summit

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The world’s leaders gathered in New York this week at the headquarters of the United Nations to discuss the world order. Obama spoke, offering his thoughts on Iran and Syria, criticizing both of them but urging patience. Obama avers that the world can deal with Iran without the use of force, though all signs point in other directions.

urging patience for Iran

“Nobody start any shit until November 7th, OK?”

Clearly with less than two months before election day, Obama does not want to sink the USA into another foreign conflict in the Middle East. With Russia backing the Assad regime in Syria, there is little that Obama can do without the risk of igniting a giant conflict and at least some sort of cold war-type stand off with Russia. Even if the rest of the world stands with the Syrian rebels, Russia is too big an obstacle for everyone to tackle when the limping economy is what is on most people’s minds. Democracies are, after all, controlled by the people.

But the thorn in Obama’s side, Israel, has been warning that it will strike Iranian nuclear complexes in order to stunt their enrichment programs and buy more time as the Iranian regime urges the world that it is going to use the nuclear capability for civilian electricity. No one outside of Iran, and some inside Iran, want them to have a nuclear weapon. This is not necessarily because the regime has promised to annihilate Israel, but because of the way that Iran fits into the world’s terrorist networks, providing arms and funding to groups such as Hezbollah. Iran would be much more likely to give a nuclear device to a terrorist group and let them try to reach a western target. This is more dangerous, since terrorists do not need to worry about the safety of a massive population like a sovereign government does.

Either way, these will be two big issues that face the next President. If Obama is re-elected, we will surely see some sort of ramping up of the aide provided to Syrian rebels, perhaps even the coordination of humanitarian buffer zones inside the Syria borders. As with the Libyan campaign, America will probably take a back seat role with NATO calls the shots. If Russia pushes back, the world should ignore it, knowing that Putin would probably not stretch his military forces away from Russia while so many protests keep popping up at home. If Russia laments the loss of its final naval base in the Mediterranean, tough shit, they should refocus their efforts on the Arctic anyway, with the melting ice opening up a bonanza of energy exploration, they could probably use their ships up there.

If Romeny is elected President, there is no telling what he would do. He would probably begin to act even more belligerently with Iran, solidifying the Iranian people with their leader and encouraging Iranian sympathy amongst other Middle Eastern nations. The sanctions in place are crippling the Iranian economy and causing unrest among the population there, effectively separating the government’s agenda from what the people need. The further apart those two things drift, the harder it is for the Iranian government to justify what it is doing. If it reaches a tipping point, there could be large scale protests and the possibility of policy change. If Romney postures like a guy ready to punch someone, Iran can say to its people: we need this weapon to make sure this guy never comes near us. The world will become a very dangerous place.

No Turning Point: The Syrian Problem

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Daily images of massacres of Syrian civilians — women and children included — headline news outlets across the west. The civil war has been going on for over a year. Tens of thousands have died. Yet Western leaders sit on their hands and issue powerless statements. Sticks and stones will destroy cities but words will never save them. The west is hamstrung by illegitimacy. 

Syrian civil war

One if by land, two if by sea

Russia, long wont to rebuff the democratic system in favor of its current nepotistic capitalism, is not on board to remove Assad, Syria’s tyrant. They see him as their last ally in the Mediterranean, and do not want to send a signal to their population that if you rebel enough against a dictator that the world doesn’t like, they will come to your rescue. If the Russians started to fight against Putin and his regime, to the outsiders it would look eerily similar to Syria and Libya. Therefore, Russia does not even issue strong-worded statements against Assad. It is this, and China’s unwillingness to get into anyone else’s business at all, that limit what the world can do.

But the truly limiting factor is battle fatigue. America is trying its best to get out of Middle Eastern conflicts. Obama, facing stiff competition for the November election, can’t afford to risk starting a conflict that gets drawn out more than a matter of weeks. Syria is much better armed than Libya was, and is connected to nearby Iran via supply routes. European countries that would’ve taken the lead, like France under Sarkozy, have been steadily recalibrating their military budgets and thus their ambitions too. Literally no one can afford to foot the bill that air support and possible further combat operations would demand.

Every time another atrocity comes to light against the people of Syria who have endured dictatorial rule from the Assad family for their entire lives, people hope that it marks a turn in the way the greater world powers might operate. Each time this happens, no one steps up to the plate.

The Arab spring has changed the Middle East and Northern Africa for the better, and there is no reason that the world should not start to immediately help the Syria rebels. Obama is afraid of the negative outcomes of starting another war. But he shouldn’t be, just as in Libya, America could provide support while leaving the major operations to NATO. Not only would it send a clear message to Moscow that suffering people will be helped, but it would end the conversation that enables disagreement in the first place. It would be unlikely for Russia to cock their guns to be dragged into a conflict against the rest of the world over such a small friend. Putin might be crazy, but he knows a thing or two about survival.

Alas, there will probably be no major action until an unusual power steps out of its shell: Turkey. With size and strength, Turkish forces should set up humanitarian buffer zones along its border with Syria to allow the Free Syria Army to organize, and perhaps become armed. If necessary, Turkish forces could protect aid routes to different points in the country. As the Tunisians did for the fleeing Libyans and rebels, the Syria resistance needs a safe place to avoid being destroyed and to move fighting out of civilian-populated urban zones. There is too much blood on the ground to hope that this dies down by itself.

NATO Draws Down, End To The War In Afghanistan

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At the NATO summit in Chicago this past week the leaders of the nations involved in scouring Afghanistan for the remnants of the Taliban discussed the ways to exit the landlocked central Asian country. After a decade of fighting, thousands of deaths, trillions of dollars, and infinite political capital, every NATO nation wants to get out as soon as possible. The question now is how many security experts can we leave in Afghanistan while still being able to call it a withdrawal and an end to the war. No matter what is decided by Obama, Republicans will be against it.

Troops in Afghanistan

Johnny drop your gun

Republicans seem to forget that in the aftermath of September 11th, W Bush pushed hard to go after Osama Bin Laden. He pushed so hard that the Taliban, Bin Laden’s supposed shelterers, became the prime target. Just like that, the USA was plunged into the steppes of Afghanistan, an area that history has proved essentially unconquerable. Flush with American weapons provided to fight the Soviets during the 80′s, the Taliban had heavy advantages; mountains, caves, and most importantly, time.

Democracy is at best a messy roommate who never seems to clear all his dishes from the sink. There is never enough time to balance the decisions needed for the future and fixing the problems that arise today. It has gotten so paralyzed in the United States thanks to the Republicans who are rewarded for never compromising that sites like The Wrong Wing were created. For war efforts without a clear finish line, the effect of domestic politics becomes particularly dicey. Everyone has their own opinions, and the leaders have to think about what the general population believes in order to get reelected, which is not how wars should be fought.

Yet we are in the mess that we are thanks to W Bush. Obama has done an admirable job of cleaning up the debris that W Bush left in his wake. Obama ended the war in Iraq, got Osama Bin Laden, and is now ending the war in Afghanistan. Imagine what the man could have done if W Bush hadn’t left America in ruins when he departed office. Imagine how many more of us would have jobs if W Bush didn’t waste trillions of dollars on two campaigns, one in anger and one completely under false pretenses, that cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, both soldiers and civilians. There probably would not have been a recession.

After a decade of indecisive war, it is time for NATO to leave Afghanistan. The question now becomes, how much force is necessary to keep the Karzai government propped up? There is no answer to this question, since the Taliban and their allies are patient. They can wait until the west’s eyes are diverted to another troublesome area before mounting a new attack. This may come during the next few months, or the next few generations. Either way, the best that we as America can do now is to pledge our support, our aid, and continue to offer or broadest apologies for not being able to rid the country of the Taliban. For there is another group who wasn’t able to oust the Taliban either, the Afghans themselves, at least in this sense we have some solidarity.