The Paul Ryan Problem

The United States faces an uncertain financial future. The recovering economy has not yet seen the kind of boost necessary to pick up the slack and prevent the nation from sinking in the event of a shock. This is a problem because a shock might be coming. In the eyes of many political pundits, we are headed towards a precipitous fiscal cliff.

usa debt crisis

It only drops a few feet

The fiscal cliff invites violent images of falling to one’s death. Yet it is much less dramatic than that. The automatic raises in taxes and cuts in spending were put in place to appease creditors and to show that if the government cant get its act together, there would be something that could save America’s financial books from our own gridlock and polarized ideologies.

The term automatic is really meaningless in this case. Lawmakers can always get around things, nothing is written in stone and with the primary focus of the country resting firmly on increasing jobs, not eliminating the debt, there will always be something that can be done. The idea of a fiscal cliff is only real if the Democrats use it to affront the Republican agenda, the same way Republicans toyed with the idea of default to rattle the Democrats.

There is most certainly a debt problem in America. And at the core of the negotiations to find a solution is former vice presidential candidate and extreme conservative Paul Ryan, who arguably cost Mitt Romney Florida and couldn’t even carry his own state of Wisconsin. Ryan is known around the nation as the debt guy, who presented radical plans to level the budget. He is not very well known and not every widely liked, but at least he presented a plan. He is one of the few that have.

UNCERTAINTY ON THE HILL

Ryan might be known as the debt guy but — as we have written about countless times before — he has voted for nearly every single measure put in place by W Bush that created the debt problem that we face today. This glaring hypocrisy aside, he is a wild card. Being young, he is promising for the Tea Party movement. However, the Tea Party is probably dead as we know it. Whatever form their resurrection will take will probably mean meandering towards the center of the political spectrum, or else face losing again and again in coming elections.

The biggest question is how Ryan will play to the far right of America. He needs to balance his conservative credentials (based on his voting record, this is only in regards to social issues) and the practical needs of the country. Some of the Tea Party candidates, like Mourdock in Indiana, were able to unseat long-time Washington Insiders thanks to an anti-government agenda. But when they ran against Democrats, they lost. Could Ryan actually fall victim to a movement like this? He has been in Washington as an elected official since 1998. With the growing unease and unpopularity of Congress, Ryan might become a target of the very same movement that brought him almost to the Vice Presidency.

So Ryan must progress the budget talks while retaining a near-impossible level of  conservative zeal, which normally means not compromising. If the nation hits the fiscal cliff, it will be his fault in the eyes of the entire country. If he softens his stance on the budget to accommodate a plausible solution, he will lose his luster among the far right, which could cost him his political future. The nation waits to see if pragmatism can right the nation’s finances and push Ryan towards a more sympathetic centrist position. If he does this correctly, he might be able to rely on socially-conservative centrist Republicans to keep his place in the GOP ranks. If not, he might not be re-elected come 2014.

Math Republicans Do To Make Themselves Feel Better

Reality, we have seen — time and time again — does not include everyone. Throughout the entire election campaign, we have argued that Republican visions for America were not in line with what the nation was actually facing. All of the Republican heads were wrong leading up to Tuesday’s election. The race wasn’t even close, Obama cruised to a decisive victory. How could they all have got it so wrong, when Nate Silver predicted everything with perfect accuracy?

math republicans do to make themselves feel better

It’s not just Tuesday, you have been wrong for a long, long time

On Tuesday night, we got confirmation that what Republicans try to make themselves believe, and what is really happening in America are in fact two different things, solely because the reality of America depresses some Republicans. When the belief came face to face with reality, it exploded.

Karl Rove, one of the top Republican operates, was on Fox when the media called Ohio for Obama. It was the finishing move of the campaign, the beheading and de-intestining of Romney’s bid, and Rove couldn’t accept it. He doubted the claims, tried to bring in false information until he was called out by one of the anchors, who asked Rove pointedly, “is this just math republicans do to make themselves feel better?”

Jon Stewart sums it up better than we ever could on the Daily Show from November 7th. Watch the whole episode to hear from Nate Silver, who might’ve just completely changed the way that elections work:

 

Romney’s Concession Speech [VIDEO]

Mitt Romney campaigned for the presidency for a total of nearly six years during two election cycles. He spent and raised billions of dollars with the GOP to try to reach the highest office in the land. He was not the first in his family, his father, George Romney, ran unsuccessfully for president in 1968. On Tuesday night, after the polls closed and the numbers came in, he called President Obama to congratulate him on a well-fought victory.

the three reasons mitt romney lost the presidential election

The former presidential candidate

There are three primary reasons why Romney failed to win the election, even at a time when the sluggish economy made someone as liked as Barack Obama vulnerable. Romney failed to connect with the American people, he was on the wrong side of social issues, and he failed to earn America’s trust.

Connecting with a population is horrendously difficult, but connecting with individuals shouldn’t be. For seasoned politicians, who possess a certain level of interpersonal skills, public speaking and interviews should be natural. Just watching Obama speak makes people feel like he is one of them. He doesn’t look like he’s acting. He is genuine. Romney was unable to morph into the smooth talking politician like Clinton or Reagan. His movements were robotic, his tone condescending, and his face had the tendency to reveal scorn over happiness. It was the same criticisms of his father, who lost the nomination to Richard Nixon in 1968. Romney’s money was a problem too, as he never could shake off the images of foreign bank accounts, vacation homes, and Wall Street excess.

Some could argue he was doomed from the start thanks to the Republican mantle. With the economy growing slowly yet steadily, any magical economic boost that Romney might have been able to engineer just wasn’t viewed by the public as being worth setting back civil and gender rights. Whether or not Romney actually wanted to repeal Roe vs. Wade (almost 100% sure he doesn’t) he would’ve been in a position to make that a reality. The tide also shifted with gay rights, with more than half of the nation supporting marriage equality. Republicans have not become more open, they have only doubled-down. Historically, Romney would have been on the right side of these issues, like when he was the governor of Massachusetts. But that brings us to the final reason why Romney lost, trust.

Romney has been on each side of every issue. Flip-flopping on abortion, gay rights, healthcare, gun control, you name it, Romney seemed to take a calculated bet that was more about him rising to power than championing any sort of cause. He is treating politics like a CEO treats a business, when the two could not possibly be more different. He even had to pick radical conservative congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate, to try to convince the far right wing conservatives that he was for real. Couple this approach with his unwillingness to disclose his tax returns, provide real information about his leadership at Bain (during and after the Salt Lake City Olympics), dodging any sort of military service during Vietnam, and making comments about 47% of the people in the country, and you get a guy that not many people are willing to give the keys to their car to. Romney wanted to have everything on his terms, which meant leaving us in the dark. As a result, he did little to garner the trust of anyone, not even those in the Republican party.

This is his last speech of the 2012 US Election:

Legitimately Finished: Republican Candidates Can’t Escape Rape Comments

The victory of Barack Obama yesterday was the result of nearly sweeping the crucial battleground states. But in the various Senate races up for grabs across the country, where Republicans were hopeful that they might be able to wrest control of the senate from the Democrats for the coming term, the party of the people showed up in a big way, handing some major upsets to the GOP and retaining power over the Senate for the next two years at least. Of those who failed to reach their goals; two men who had made it clear that they were not fit to create policy.

legitimate rape comments cost akin senate seat

Down and out

In Missouri, disgraced politician Todd Akin, whose comments about female biology during instances of “legitimate rape” made him a target for equality advocates across the nation, had already been cut off from the Republican party. Even former candidate (how good does it feel to say that!) Mitt Romney spoke to him amidst the controversy asking him to drop out of the race. The former presidential candidate was keenly aware of the War on Women and the negative view of the GOP held by anyone in the USA with a vagina, and everyone else in the USA who cares about them. Romney and Republican party officials wanted Akin out to calm nerves and maneuver in a candidate who might have had a chance at winning.

Headstrong, Akin decided to stay in, polls had him remaining competitive. But his support evaporated, and the opposition materialized. He was successfully kept out of the Senate and most likely will never surface again in politics. Good riddance.

Akin was not the only man to reveal that he has no idea how female (or human) biology works while at the same time trying make the case to enact laws to control reproductive rights. Richard Mourdock, the former treasurer of the state of Indiana, got into trouble when he made comments about pregnancy resulting from rape being the will of God. While his blatant ignorance and disregard of reality was on display for the entirety of his campaign, it was this that pushed him over the edge and eroded the incredible amount of support he was able to amass during his beginning of his campaign.

will of god rape comments cost mourdock senate race

There’s no room for you here either

Mourdock was a Tea Party favorite, whose anti-Washington, anti-government, and anti-tax message caused him to defeat Republican Senator Dick Lugar — who served 36 years in the Senate — by over 20 percentage points during the Republican primaries. He looked like a shoe-in for victory in a Republican state with a popular Republican governor (Mitch Daniels). He fell to Democrat Joe Donnelly, whose biggest asset was simply that he wasn’t a religious radical who wanted to control women while understanding nothing about reality.

The fall of the Tea Party darlings is probably the nail in the coffin for the radical right wing group that has cannibalized the Republican party. Their hypocritical, sexist, and entirely ignorant beliefs are becoming increasingly marginalized, and thanks to the velocity that news can morph and travel on the internet, it is impossible to escape any questionable comments. Society is too modern for these time-traveling chauvinists.

To dismiss these comments from both men as simply “errors” of speech would be to classify them like Mitt Romney’s “Binders full of women” comment. Romney’s comment caught fire because of the potential comical images that come to mind immediately. Akin and Mourdock actually believe what they said. They actually believe that access to contraceptives, abortion, and family planning are against the will of God. They fail to accept that as a progressive society we need a standard of health that is identical between men and women, and that this standard must be based on science and common morality, not the Bible. They represent an older, radical demographic that is quickly shrinking into irrelevancy. Hopefully the results from yesterday mean that at least two more men are out of the game for good.

Barack Obama Wins: Victory Speech [VIDEO]

President Barack Obama has won the 2012 election. Reelected comfortably for four more years, the election was over quickly, avoiding the horrible nightmares of provisional ballots, lawsuits, and recounts. When the dust settled, Obama cruised to victory in the majority of the battleground states, including the bell weather state Ohio.

barack obama michelle obama

Hope.

Elation abounds across the nation. Everywhere, those who voted for Obama are excited to see the man who reformed health care, took our nation out of a decade of war, opened up society for everyone, advanced the cause of all groups, and most importantly earned the trust of the nation that when a difficult decision needs to be made, he is the one to do it, can continue America’s crusade towards the future. We deserve it.

But the single biggest reason to be proud of America today is that even when corporations and special interests are able to do and say whatever they want — to drown the voices of actual citizens, to compromise equality, fairness, and our physical safety, to yield disproportionate influence over those who make policy — when it comes to the polls, we each get one vote. And we all voted. We voted to say that as a society we are equals as humans. We broke the teeth of the rich donors and businesses who wanted to profit at the expense of our nation, not for our nation as they so claimed.

And it is reckoning time for the Republican Party, whose fracturing divisions and increasingly marginalized positions will mean that if it remains unchanged, it will rapidly lose influence. They must accept that the majority of Americans want a better place to live, not a place that removes obstacles for some people to succeed, while leaving everyone else outside the gate. They must accept that religious influence to the point of clouding reality has no place in real political debate. They must accept that compromise is the only way forward.

As Obama says in his acceptance speech, we are hopeful. Sing it, Mr. President:

Three Days To Go: What The Nation Expects

After the continuous discussions of Hurricane Sandy died down on the social media channels, it’s back to politicking. There are only three days to go until the polls close, and both sides of the nation wait anxiously, hoping for a victory for their guy. But articles pop out claiming that Romney is slipping. The governor of New Jersey throws his weight behind Obama, and overall, very few people expect Romney to win. None of that matters of course, it’s still anyone’s game. 

nations expectations for presidential election

It’s almost here

Economic indicators are up, unemployment is down. Housing starts leapt to their highest amount in Obama’s presidency. Studies show consumer confidence rising, and retailers are looking forward to a big holiday season. While a lot of people still struggle to find work, and many have managed to find work but not in their desired field, conditions are certainly improving. None of that bodes well for the Romney camp, who were relying on a receded economy to make their argument for election.

One of President Obama’s biggest critics, the larger than life personality of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, has done what any good leader would do, he has looked out for his state, coordinated rescue and recovery efforts, and worked hand in hand with President Obama to coordinate the federal aid needed to rebuild his state. All of the hard talk and honesty that Christie was praised for by Republicans during the RNC softened. Christie’s bipartisanship has reminded the nation that speech rhetoric is not how we work together as a nation. That also doesn’t bode well for Romney, who was relying on the division of the nation (the 47%) to energize the other half to vote for him. Images of people working together do not help the Republican cause.

But the most telling information might be the new Gallup poll that has 54% of the nation believing that Obama will stand victorious, versus 34% that think that Romney will be able to pull it out. To be crystal clear, most polls have the popular vote in a dead heat, with certain swing states unpredictable. But the sounding of who the nation believes it will have as a leader reveals the state of the campaigns and the strength of the candidates. It might not mean anything, but the fact that the number remains essentially unchanged since the same polls in the spring, is intriguing.

Election Month Has Arrived: Five More Days

Mitt Romney has been campaigning for the presidency for more than six years. His family has a history of campaigning, his father was an unsuccessful presidential candidate in the 1960′s. Now, as the page of the calendar turns to November, with five short days to go before the nation’s decision is made, Romney is completing his rebirth. He has returned almost entirely to his days as a moderate Republican governor. 

The Tea Party must be steaming right now, ready to blow the lids of their pots. All of the promises that Romney made when he was fighting to get their votes during the primaries, all of the posturing, hawkish rhetoric, competing with out-of-touch conservatives like Rick Santorum and the Unethical Amphibian, has been discarded in favor of the center, the middle of the American political spectrum where elections are won. But hey, it’s not like the Tea Partiers are going to vote for Obama!

It reveals much about the American political system when winning the primaries is so different from winning the general election. On one side, America is a gigantic country with hundreds of millions of people and billions of opinions. On the other side, we agree on fundamental points: we must remain strong, we must remain safe, and we must continue to advance the American cause. Some would say that it is normal to present two different faces, one during the primary and one during the general election. But when the past elections are divided up between Democratic primaries and Republican primaries, austere differences appear.

During the 2008 campaign, the differences between Obama and Hillary Clinton were slim, existing in theory if at all. The Obama who began campaigning in the primaries was the same man elected president in November 2008. His messages remained identical, he did not sway, change opinion, or pander. He led.

The transformation that Mitt Romney has undergone is incredible. He ran in 2008 as a moderate Republican. He lost the nomination to John McCain. He reappeared two years ago to throw his hat in for the 2012 election, and the media immediately labelled him as the front runner. This was not because Mitt Romney deserved to be in front, but because there were literally no other prominent Republicans who wanted to take a stab at unseating Obama. It shows just how desperate the Republicans were that Newt Gingrich, the Unethical Amphibian himself, thought that he could be a presidential candidate!

Yet as the media-annointed “front-runner” Romney still had to deal with an angry sect on the far right of his party who threatened to gain enough momentum to propel someone like Santorum into the national race. Romney doubled down, and veered to the right. He attacked his own personal history of helping the poor and sick. He railed against Obamacare as unconstitutional (looks like he was wrong about that) and went after Obama for being weak on an international stage.

Funny how different one man can be, even when there are hundreds of millions of eyeballs on him. Now, less than one week before the polls close, he is assuring people that he would keep some of the aspects of Obamacare, that he would not turn Medicare into a voucher system and, as revealed during the final presidential debate, he would take an identical strategy to dealing with international situations as Obama has. Romney has not just veered to the center, he has veered to the left!

There is some danger to this, as the far right, who were already skeptical about Romney, might decide that it’s not worth it to show up at the polls. In a state like Wyoming, that isn’t going to matter. Romney will get the delegates. But in swing states, where Romney and Obama have spent nearly all of their time, it could have an effect. Except for one thing: the far right in America doesn’t seem to have a memory, unless it is used to recall the gold old days when Reagan was President. They see Obama as the biggest threat to their personal liberties, and clasp their notions of freedumb, rejecting all rationalization, scientific thought, and even their own blatant hypocrisy. If Romney can flip flop across the nation and the years like a fish trying to escape from a boat, and no one on the right cares, let’s hope it’s because they aren’t planning on voting.

Electoral College Breakdown

This politiblog has never really understood the point of the electoral college. Apparently it was put in place by the founding fathers to ensure that there was a barrier, or safe guard, between the people of the United States and their highest office. While it might have been an interesting idea when the population was tiny to prevent a radical from taking over, the USA is now definitely too big to have an electoral college.

path to victory

It just doesn’t add up

The US election apparatus is flawed in many ways. The state by state format disenfranchises voters who know that their state is going to go one way. It would not do anything to vote for Obama in Wyoming, for example, where the Republican candidate would win even if he were a donkey, like this year. It’s the same for Republicans voting in California or New York. In our opinion, the best option would be a true popular vote, measuring each and every vote across the entire country. That is a democracy.

Having expressed this, here’s how the electoral map breaks down for Romney and Obama now that the election is in less than two weeks. Every single pollster in the nation says it’s a dead heat. Statistically, it could go either way, and it comes down to the following battleground states (electoral votes):

  • Virginia (13)
  • Florida (29)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • Ohio (18)
  • Colorado (9)
  • Nevada (6)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Wisconsin (10)
  • Nevada (6)

There are more routes for Obama to get to the necessary delegates to win the election, with Romney requiring some big wins to get close to the same point. Almost all of the campaign advertising and Super PAC funded efforts have fallen in these states, with other states getting minimal attention.

For the second time in as many elections, the selection of a VP Candidate has proven more of a liability than an asset. Sarah Palin in 2008 sunk John McCain, and Paul Ryan has the same potential for Mitt Romney. Appeasing the Tea Party minions means sacrificing the center, and Paul Ryan’s highly unpopular plan to eliminate Medicare probably will cost Romney Florida. Ryan is also not much help in a heavily-divided Wisconsin whose Democrats have been fighting tirelessly to oust their Republican Governor over the curbs he placed on collective bargaining.

Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, but it looks less likely that he will do it this time again. The last election saw a spike in first time voters, who were motivated by his inspiration. Now that they have had four years of him, they are not buzzing with the same amplitude this time around. He needs to make sure that people vote early and get to the polls. He could carry the state again.

Romney stands a good chance in Nevada, where unemployment is the highest level in the nation. His message of economic stewardship rings well there. This might also be the case in Ohio, who has a 7% unemployment rate, below the national average, but a popular Republican Governor who is trying to take most of the credit for that, even though it is directly thanks to Obama’s bailout that plugged the leak in jobs during the crisis.

An Important Endorsement: Salt Lake City Tribune

Now that the final debate is over, and the presidential candidates have had their chance to make their case, we begin to see the formal endorsement of some news outlets that seek to provide their opinion of the candidates before election day. It is an important process in American political culture, and can deal some surprises. 

The Salt Lake City Tribune has come out against the grain of the state of Utah, dominated by Mormons and conservatives and considered well within the boundaries of Romney territory. They have endorsed Obama for another four years, citing primarily what this politiblog has always said: we just don’t know which Romney we will be electing.

Romney comes in many forms, and is willing to say and do whatever he needs to be elected. This is the primary difference: Romney gives a different pitch to each audience he speaks to, Obama does not. Obama says the same thing to everyone, no matter what their interests might be. Even if you don’t like his policy, that is the clear sign of a leader, and not someone who is just trying to be President.

The Final Presidential Debate: Recap

The final presidential debate took place last night in Florida, with President Obama and Mitt Romney meeting for the final time before election day. With a focus on foreign policy, the debate went almost exactly as expected. President Obama walked away with a strong victory, but Mitt Romney did avoid the sort of hawkish tilt that has stained many Republican candidates in the past. 

horse and bayonets

It’s almost time to choose

It is much different to talk about foreign policy than to actually do anything on an international level. President Obama has taken a much softer and diplomatic approach than W Bush and many presidents before him. Obama has come under much criticism from the conservative wing for “apologizing for America.” This is nothing but selfish propaganda reflecting the fear that many conservatives feel when thinking of the world at large. Romney tried to make him look weak, and promised to restore the greatness of leadership.

It would be nothing short of impossible for Romney to lead the world as Obama has. Obama, from the sheer fact of being multiracial, compounded by his compassionate approach to every country in the world, has better united the world just by being a symbol. If there were a worldwide election, Obama would win with at least 90% of the vote. He is widely respected for his cool approach, which is extremely well marked thanks to the  glaring contrast between the “style” of W Bush.

When the conversation last night got to what each man would do regarding difficult situations in Iran and Syria, the American public got equal answers. Romney was unable to provide enough differentiation against what Obama was already doing, and his responses were nearly identical. This is not because Romney feels the same way as Obama, but because it almost never matters what the President himself thinks regarding foreign policy. Unless it’s something very big, It is almost always a decision made in the best interest of America taking all information and possibilities into account, from advisory teams comprised of foreign policy experts. Whatever Obama’s aides are saying to him now about the situations in Syria and Iran would be identical to what a President Romney’s aides would tell him.

Where the candidates did diverge was the size of America’s military. Romney has criticized Obama for wanting to “weaken” the military, and called him out for a reduced number of warships and fighter planes. Obama responded that the military has changed: we don’t have the same number of bayonets or horses, either. It is true that the role of the military is changing, but it is changing because it must.

Responding to the security challenges present in the world today, Obama has done a good job to reorient the focus of the defense department onto real threats. Beefing up cyber warfare protection, using drones to dismantle terrorist networks, and placing more emphasis on the Pacific region, are all examples of the reorientation. What Republicans refuse to understand is that the power of the United States military is still immense, and unrivaled in technological terms. It must stay this way in order to retain military dominance. Obama is the man to take us there over the next four years.