Category Archives: International

One Year From Now: The End of The American War In Afghanistan

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President Obama has made one thing abundantly clear throughout his tenure in our nation’s highest office: Afghanistan will be done by 2014. Well, 2014 is now less than one year away, and the President is not shying away from his objective. Social media posts have gone out which announce the President’s goal and carry the message “One year from now we will be out of Afghanistan.” Just check the President’s Facebook page for more inspiring images and quotes. 

obama afghan exit strategy

Turning our backs on them

While that may give the American soldiers, their families, and the rest of our nation a nice fuzzy feeling that after more than a decade of war America will finally be free of major conflict, Afghanistan is little better than it was in 2001 when America invaded. The Taliban never went away fully, and most realistic scenarios involve engaging with the Taliban and bringing them in on a governmental level once America leaves. Which means that America pummeled a “terrorist” group for almost 13 years, spent countless lives and dollars, and in the end, that group still has a say in the government, women are second class citizens, and not even the closest American allies can be trusted.

Are there a few new schools? Sure. Are there areas that are much safer than they were before? Of course. But does Afghanistan have a culture that demands western-style democracy over central asian style tyranny? Do the people of Afghanistan want Karzai or a different warlord? How quickly will Afghanistan revert back to what it has always been: a tribal territory with different factions that has ignited at various points of friction essentially continuously since the Mongolian empire?

What the war failed to do was create enough value and security in Afghanistan for the quality of life to measurably improve. War by definition destroys, and there is no structure in place to rebuild the rumble like Germany after World War II. Afghan businesses are not very international, so they rely on domestic demand, many on a hyper-local level. Because conditions have not improved, business has suffered dramatically, almost to the point of no repair.

ROOM FOR HOPE?

The only bright spot in this sea of black holes is mining. The surface of Afghanistan might be rocky, arid, and not suited for much agriculture, but underneath the barren rocks is a treasure trove of minerals. Some experts have estimated the value of various elements to be in the neighborhood of $1 trillion. Being able to tap this resource and funnel the profits to governmental programs like social assistance and education would vastly accelerate the pace of change and development. And since the value of minerals and raw metals — particularly for electronics — is only increasing as supply in other countries wanes, a strong mining strategy should pay off heavily in the long term.

Yet historically, mining is one of the most corrupt industries. Extracting minerals is very capital-intensive, dangerous, and slow. In a place like Afghanistan, where opportunity is rarely presented, the chance to siphon off money would be too tempting for some, to the point where western governments (that should in theory bankroll these projects) might withdraw their support. A lack of infrastructure to deliver materials from mines to ports, security threats from rogue soldiers and extortionists, and zero immediate positive social impact are the main reasons why this hasn’t happened already. It’s not going to get better anytime soon, but the alternative to not creating a plan is worse.

In the absence of a strong national conviction to adopt a western-style culture of equality, any progress is going to be difficult to come by. If there was a sustainable solution, it would’ve been found years ago. Now the best that the US can do is throw in the towel and leave some security experts for an indefinite period of time to try and consolidate the central government’s reach by keeping malicious forces at bay, at least for the near term. It sounds horrible, because unfortunately, it is.

UN Passes Resolution Naming Palestine A State

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In the most recent flare up in violence between Israel and Palestine, things looked set for a ground invasion by the Israeli army into Palestine. Luckily, and just in the nick of time, the plan was averted, sparing countless lives and major amounts of damage to Palestinian infrastructure. Then, just yesterday, in a move that has Palestinians celebrating in the streets, the UN overwhelming approved Palestines bid to up their status from observer to a nonmember observer state. It might sound like a technicality, but that word ‘state’ is oh so important. 

UN resolution recognizes palestinian state

Some good news in the gloom

The event overall was not a surprise, most countries in the world side with the Palestinian cause. The only nations that opposed it were Israel, America, and the nations that lie well within the American sphere of influence. Surprisingly, western countries like France and Italy also sided with the Palestinians, which may reveal a greater shift in the political approach to the Middle East.

Now, Palestine has greater access to the UN including international courts, and it will use this as bargaining power with Israel. Even in places like America, most people believe the best option for lasting stability is a two state solution. The problem is Israel’s defense. Since many Middle Eastern leaders and people despise Israel for its conception after World War II, returning to the pre-1967 borders probably won’t be satisfactory. In the case, Israel needs distance between them and people that might attack them. This has been the logic since the Six Days War: lock down Palesine to keep a buffer between Israel and other threats.

But you can’t keep an entire population in what is essentially a vast prison because of the threat to your security. The conditions imposed in Palestine by Israel are inhumane, and a solution must be found. The UN’s decision is a major step towards legitimacy, and will hopefully start to change the dynamic between Palestine and Israel, not nearly enough to put them on level-footing (we are decades away from that) but it’s a step up, and a cause to celebrate.

Morsi’s New Powers

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With the birth of democracy in Egypt has come much uncertainty. Tangled between the different groups that have seen the efficacy of protesting lies the direction of Egypt’s future. When Mohammed Morsi took victory in the first elections since the fall of Mubarak, the western world waited to see the path he would select. Many worried that because he was a Muslim Brother, the US would lose an ally that has been central to peace in the region. While up until this point he had operated admirably, events just took a turn for the worse.

In a swift move designed to accelerate his ability to implement new legislation, Morsi has consolidated power and in effect risen above the powers of the legislative and judicial pillars. To many, this is not a good sign.

MOTIVATION

egypt transition to democracy after arab spring

How far will he go?

Democracy is a messy process, and even in mature democracies, change is a battle. The American congress is grid-locked. European multi-party governments get dissolved on a monthly basis. The competing forces of left, right, and everything in between are seldom in harmony. Sometimes, democratic leaders wish they could just drown out the noise and pursue their agenda. But it doesn’t work that way.

Egypt needs a new constitution, and with unrest and novice politicians it is a monumental challenge. In the meantime, Morsi needs to act. He wants to open new investigations into the former army and government leaders’ involvement in resistance and treatment of the Arab Spring protesters who filled Tahrir Square until Mubarak was gone. This made a lot of people happy. But he also took the step to effectively uncouple the limits to his power to the rest of the government to further his reforms, a move which his opponents claim is tantamount to immunity and would place him on a level of a dictator.

REALITY

The move might be getting blown out of proportion by his opponents, and thus the media. Egyptians are not used to speaking so strongly against their leaders due to the fear of reprisal under Mubarak. The language of politics is new to them. Head on over to the United States to see how many people labelled W Bush a dictator (us, more than a few times) and how many people today see Obama as a socialist nazi (whatever that is).

Will the move actually enable Morsi to infringe upon the democratic process or is it just a symbolic step to show his willingness to change Egypt and send a signal to other parties that it’s time to get their act together? Morsi does not seem like the man that would consolidate power until the point of tyranny, but there have been a lot of democratically elected leaders who slowly tighten the noose until their power is supreme. If Morsi uses the new abilities to push through a democratic constitution and then takes a step back, Egypt and the world will breathe a sigh of relief.

 

Israel Readies Ground Assault on Gaza

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When the rockets began hitting the ground in Israel, the world tensed. The globe had been witness to this before, and the ensuing retaliation on the part of the Israelis. In an area of the world that has really never seen lasting peace since the beginning of civilization, the armies mobilize. Israel is now days or maybe hours away from sending ground troops into Gaza.

palestinian flag

The Right to Defend

Hundreds of Palestinians have already perished in the Israeli missile and aerial attacks since last week. Gaza is very densely populated because of its tiny size. Palestinian and Hamas fighters are concentrated in the heart of civilian areas. Normally, this would shield them from a western style power that is restricted by the laws of war. But Isreal has seen too many rockets, and has been dealing with this dilemma for too long to care anymore. They are going after Hamas no matter where they are.

THE RIGHT TO DEFEND

In the United States, where support for Israel is deep and unwavering, no one wants to see war. But one cannot deny that rockets shot at Israel with the intention of killing people constitutes an attack worthy of defense. The response will not be proportional, nothing in war ever is. Therefore, not much is going to come from the US in terms of disuading or outright stopping an Israeli ground invasion.

Egypt, the normal moderator between Israel and the Arab world, is, for the first time, led by a Muslim Brother and not a dictator propped up by the west. So far, their position has not changed significantly. They continue to negotiate for a cease-fire and for peace. With the history of wars between Israel and Egypt, and Egypt having been on the losing side, there is almost no possibility that Egyptian forces will be sent to mediate the invasion. Though they are prodding — along with Qatar and increasingly Turkey — for peace, there is not much they can use for negotiation.

THE MISSED OPPORTUNITY

The circle of violence has become institutionalized. It is the classic chicken vs. egg dilemma: Israel responds to attacks, killing many people, which causes new animosity and the need for revenge, which propels Palestinians to mount resistance movements and fire more rockets. Israel attacks again, and the cycle is repeated.

The only way to break the cycle of this violence is to improve living conditions in Palestine enough that people start feeling less animosity towards Israel and instead start to place a greater value on what they have. It is up to Israel and the world to rebuild Palestine the way that it rebuilt its own country after World War II up until this very day.

Now, as it stands, the Israeli grip on Palestinian land and the destructiveness of its attacks — which level entire blocks of cities, destroy communication, leadership, and infrastructure — means that the standard of living will never improve, it only continues to worsen. No amount of controlled buffer zones will provide lasting security for Israel. Its only option is to mount a humanitarian campaign to improve living conditions for Palestinians, open up trade, and integrate Palestinian businesses into their economy. If enough Palestinians are dependent on Israel for financial success, it will become less of a target.

The chances of this happening are close to zero.

Xi Jinping, China’s New Leader

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Yesterday marked the formal end to the long and internal process of the transition of leadership for the largest country in the world, China. When compared to the fervor over the American election last week, one would easily miss the ascension of Xi Jinping. Taking control for the next ten years, Xi Jinping will lead China far into the future, and how he leads could have an even greater impact on the world than someone like United States President Obama.

chinese political leadership transition

10 years is a long time

Xi is the son of Xi Zhongxun, a communist guerilla and political leader whose work in Mao’s revolution was central. Xi himself worked with the communist groups from the age of 15, and began his political rise early. Considered one of the princelings — or the sons of the revolutionary leaders — he has been responsible for managing some of the largest and most economically successful regions of China. He is extremely highly educated, with doctorates in both chemical engineering and political science. It is no wonder then that he takes the reigns of the nation itself.

The new General Secretary takes over for Hu Jintao, who over the past ten years oversaw remarkable growth and transition in standards of living for many (mostly urban) Chinese. Xi faces sluggish world economic growth, but he is known as a reformer, and the world waits to see if Xi opens up China to make it more competitive.

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The cost of labor in China is rising as a direct result of growth and higher standards of living. This makes China less attractive to foreign businesses for manufacturing than it was in the 90s and 00s. But at the same time, demand for goods domestically in China is booming, attracting business on the demand side. Both of these trends are opportunities for a man like Xi, however he must now face the limitations of the nation to get things done, instead of leading at the more autonomous regional level.

DEMOGRAPHICS

The biggest problem that Xi will face will certainly be one of demographics. Since China instituted the one child policy in 1979 there has been an increase in male children born. Because in Chinese society, a son brings a daughter to the household, boys are worth much more. This had led to something The Economist and others have labelled as Gendercide, with an estimated future deficit of nearly 100,000,000 girls thanks to the horrible practices of infanticide and gender screening. As the boys mature into men over the next ten years, there will be a huge shortage of partners. Society has never seen something like this before, there is no telling what the outcome might be.

Also thanks to the one child policy, and the tendency for rich families to want fewer children in the first place, China’s population will stop increasing its growth rate next year, and after a while it will fail to keep up with the death rate, meaning the population will begin shrinking. This is terrible news for China’s pension system, which, like those in other nations, requires more workers paying in than those receiving pensions. This will also happen before China is rich, where the is not much wealth passed between generations to make up for inadequate pension payments, making government revenue and investment difficult to come by, thereby stagnating the rising standards of living.

It begs the question, might Xi be the one to pursue major reforms on the one child policy, or perhaps even the elimination of it? Or will he relax immigration requirements as a way to continue growing the population? We think so.

The Final Presidential Debate: Recap

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The final presidential debate took place last night in Florida, with President Obama and Mitt Romney meeting for the final time before election day. With a focus on foreign policy, the debate went almost exactly as expected. President Obama walked away with a strong victory, but Mitt Romney did avoid the sort of hawkish tilt that has stained many Republican candidates in the past. 

horse and bayonets

It’s almost time to choose

It is much different to talk about foreign policy than to actually do anything on an international level. President Obama has taken a much softer and diplomatic approach than W Bush and many presidents before him. Obama has come under much criticism from the conservative wing for “apologizing for America.” This is nothing but selfish propaganda reflecting the fear that many conservatives feel when thinking of the world at large. Romney tried to make him look weak, and promised to restore the greatness of leadership.

It would be nothing short of impossible for Romney to lead the world as Obama has. Obama, from the sheer fact of being multiracial, compounded by his compassionate approach to every country in the world, has better united the world just by being a symbol. If there were a worldwide election, Obama would win with at least 90% of the vote. He is widely respected for his cool approach, which is extremely well marked thanks to the  glaring contrast between the “style” of W Bush.

When the conversation last night got to what each man would do regarding difficult situations in Iran and Syria, the American public got equal answers. Romney was unable to provide enough differentiation against what Obama was already doing, and his responses were nearly identical. This is not because Romney feels the same way as Obama, but because it almost never matters what the President himself thinks regarding foreign policy. Unless it’s something very big, It is almost always a decision made in the best interest of America taking all information and possibilities into account, from advisory teams comprised of foreign policy experts. Whatever Obama’s aides are saying to him now about the situations in Syria and Iran would be identical to what a President Romney’s aides would tell him.

Where the candidates did diverge was the size of America’s military. Romney has criticized Obama for wanting to “weaken” the military, and called him out for a reduced number of warships and fighter planes. Obama responded that the military has changed: we don’t have the same number of bayonets or horses, either. It is true that the role of the military is changing, but it is changing because it must.

Responding to the security challenges present in the world today, Obama has done a good job to reorient the focus of the defense department onto real threats. Beefing up cyber warfare protection, using drones to dismantle terrorist networks, and placing more emphasis on the Pacific region, are all examples of the reorientation. What Republicans refuse to understand is that the power of the United States military is still immense, and unrivaled in technological terms. It must stay this way in order to retain military dominance. Obama is the man to take us there over the next four years.

The Final Presidential Debate Preview

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The final presidential debate falls tonight, capping the three part series and ushering in the sprint to election day. The topic this evening, foreign policy, might be one of the most divisive in general terms between the Democrats and Republicans. It is really two competing visions for America’s role in the world, divided by the means to the same end: a stable world in which America plays the lead.

But the substance is important. Republicans want to lead through force, by perpetually hanging the threat of war over the heads of our non-friends to keep us and our friends safe. Democrats, led by Obama’s efforts, see a much more internationally-led effort for world stability, where the United States uses diplomacy backed up by the strengths of our military.

There are too many schools of thought to determine who is right. The globe is a patchwork of interlocking cultures, just like the tectonic plates beneath our feet, that move and jostle, and sometimes erupt in a violent and harmful fashion.

Force, as a threat to keep nations in line, is less tenable than cooperation. Force can have a negative effect, a backlash, that unifies a nation, even when they are unifying behind an incompetent leader who is behaving dangerously. Cooperation helps the people of other nations, leading to progress and new connections that can have a long term effect on global stability. The European Union just won the Nobel Peace Prize, and for very good reason. Europe, since history began, has been at war, culminating in the two world wars last century. The European Project began as a way to integrate the countries so thoroughly that war could never been an option again. In that regard, at least for now, it has succeeded monumentally, to the point where the recent European generations know nothing of war.

Romney will have a hard time taking on Obama overall with foreign policy, and will focus on Iran and China tonight, trying to make Obama seem weak. While the nations who will be watching will take the debate with a grain of salt, messages to them can still get through. From Republicans, the message is: watch out, America will still come in there and get you. From the Democrats, the message is: watch out, the world doesn’t tolerate what you’re doing, and you’ll find it very difficult to go it alone. We’ll see what the American people respond to more, how well Obama can tout his credentials, or how well Romney incites the thirst for violence among the conservatives.

Obama At The UN Summit

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The world’s leaders gathered in New York this week at the headquarters of the United Nations to discuss the world order. Obama spoke, offering his thoughts on Iran and Syria, criticizing both of them but urging patience. Obama avers that the world can deal with Iran without the use of force, though all signs point in other directions.

urging patience for Iran

“Nobody start any shit until November 7th, OK?”

Clearly with less than two months before election day, Obama does not want to sink the USA into another foreign conflict in the Middle East. With Russia backing the Assad regime in Syria, there is little that Obama can do without the risk of igniting a giant conflict and at least some sort of cold war-type stand off with Russia. Even if the rest of the world stands with the Syrian rebels, Russia is too big an obstacle for everyone to tackle when the limping economy is what is on most people’s minds. Democracies are, after all, controlled by the people.

But the thorn in Obama’s side, Israel, has been warning that it will strike Iranian nuclear complexes in order to stunt their enrichment programs and buy more time as the Iranian regime urges the world that it is going to use the nuclear capability for civilian electricity. No one outside of Iran, and some inside Iran, want them to have a nuclear weapon. This is not necessarily because the regime has promised to annihilate Israel, but because of the way that Iran fits into the world’s terrorist networks, providing arms and funding to groups such as Hezbollah. Iran would be much more likely to give a nuclear device to a terrorist group and let them try to reach a western target. This is more dangerous, since terrorists do not need to worry about the safety of a massive population like a sovereign government does.

Either way, these will be two big issues that face the next President. If Obama is re-elected, we will surely see some sort of ramping up of the aide provided to Syrian rebels, perhaps even the coordination of humanitarian buffer zones inside the Syria borders. As with the Libyan campaign, America will probably take a back seat role with NATO calls the shots. If Russia pushes back, the world should ignore it, knowing that Putin would probably not stretch his military forces away from Russia while so many protests keep popping up at home. If Russia laments the loss of its final naval base in the Mediterranean, tough shit, they should refocus their efforts on the Arctic anyway, with the melting ice opening up a bonanza of energy exploration, they could probably use their ships up there.

If Romeny is elected President, there is no telling what he would do. He would probably begin to act even more belligerently with Iran, solidifying the Iranian people with their leader and encouraging Iranian sympathy amongst other Middle Eastern nations. The sanctions in place are crippling the Iranian economy and causing unrest among the population there, effectively separating the government’s agenda from what the people need. The further apart those two things drift, the harder it is for the Iranian government to justify what it is doing. If it reaches a tipping point, there could be large scale protests and the possibility of policy change. If Romney postures like a guy ready to punch someone, Iran can say to its people: we need this weapon to make sure this guy never comes near us. The world will become a very dangerous place.

Rage: The Middle East vs. Free Speech

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The amateur video that caught the world’s attention is leading to regional unrest in the Middle East that is igniting like kindling. More than a week after it reached international notoriety, the rage and protests show no sign of dwindling. But what is this video really? Was it actually a critique on the Islamic faith? Or was it just a plot designed to infuriate muslims? 

There are many more than two sides to this story, but the two main sides are as different as the United States and Pakistan. On the one side, American standards of free speech have dulled our sense as to what is offensive, and cartoons and caricatures of Jesus are so common that they don’t inspire much of a reaction anymore. But it is more than a desensitization, America is a much more liberal place than traditional muslim-dominated nations. We believe in what we believe in, and accept that which other people believe in. The right of the individual trumps all.

In the Middle East, the idea of free speech is not universal, and many of the places that are trying to move in that direction have only recently been freed from tyranny which oppressed and punished overt dissent. The Koran forbids the portrayal of the prophet Mohammed. The Bible does not forbid the portrayal of Jesus, as every single church in the world will reveal to an outside observer. Though we in the west deem free speech as an inalienable right, it is not viewed the same way in other places. This is a fundamental difference where America has a 270 year head start. It’s going to take some time before the idea that an individual can say whatever they want to say, even if it’s not true, spreads across the world (that is, if it even remains this way in America).

The true shame here is the lives that have been lost, and an opportunity has been lost too. The film took an extremely negative view of the prophet Mohammed, and mocked him and his followers for believing in him. If (and this is not likely considering how much of an attack it was) the film was meant to open a dialogue about Islam and the way that it is interpreted today, it failed miserably. While there is a universal need for respect of all religions, there are also some aspects of civil rights under certain religions that are being ignored. The role of women in some muslim countries (like Saudi Arabia) is deplorable, and they are still centuries away from a society where a woman can have something even close to a “right.” Homosexual in Iran? Ha.

A square peg cannot be jammed into a circular hole unless parts break off. This is the case of the culture of the west and the culture of the Middle East. Each side sees the other through a lens of disdain, unwilling to work together but forced to by the globalization of technology. YouTube and the like are worldwide, therefore the American value of free speech is no longer limited by borders. Continuous violence spanning generations, suicide bombings, wars, everything that has happened in the Middle East has left a bitterness. So when a video like this comes out, it does nothing to help, it only piles a little more hatred atop the mountain that has already accumulated. Everyday that the situation doesn’t get better, it gets worse. Everyday that we go without addressing our fundamental differences in worldview in an open, positive, and constructive manner, is a step away from mutual respect and peace.

Egypt’s Election Results: Morsi Wins, The World Worries

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For first time in modern memory Egyptian citizens voted in a presidential election, and though the longterm outcome remains a central worry for the US, the election itself is highly symbolic. The winner, Mohammed Morsi, is the candidate fielded by the Muslim Brotherhood, a conservative theological group. What they do now, the world waits to see.

Egypt's Election

Still standing the test of time

Egypt is strategically important to the United States for both security and political reasons. Mubarak, Egypt’s fallen strongman, who seems on the cusp of death, was a longtime American ally which provided a massive buffer zone between the Middle East and northern Africa, essentially placing an artificial secular, and neutral-towards-Israel wedge between the Arab world. But this week’s election has shown that division existed more on a political level, and that Egypt’s population and beliefs are much more similar to their neighbors in the region.

Israel, and its American supporters, fret about the devolving situation in the Sinai peninsula and the continued adherence to the peace treaty that ended Egypt’s conflict with Israel during the second half of the 20th century. America has been giving Egypt military aid for years, one worry is the country turning its firepower towards Israel, either directly or in an effort to aid the Palestinians. The Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important transit points for goods and fuel and lying entirely in Egypt, is currently pledged to remain open to all nations, but could become limited or extorted against the west.

Politically, the Middle East has Syria, Iran, and transitioning nations like Yemen to worry about. But Egypt’s massive size and population requires that stability be recovered quickly. Another point that the election revealed is that the Egyptian population (82 million) is strongly but evenly divided across the political spectrum. This means that the balance of power will remain tentative as parties exchange seats over the coming decade. Real change might be hard to achieve.

The above argument is a big reason why the Muslim Brotherhood’s biggest challenge, gaining legitimacy, is fraught with peril. It is a long road to a good reputation, especially when the world has already labelled you as a semi-terrorist organization with a jihad on the west. While there are certainly informal connections that lead anywhere one chooses to go, the Muslim brothers are now more occupied with helping Egypt through promises they made to voters. The demands of high office, including continuous public scrutiny, might serve to straightlace the outfit away from its questionable connections.

Ultimately, as in every case before it, legitimacy and popularity come from real action that visibly improves the domestic situation. The Muslim brothers say they are working for their people, for Egypt, we must give them time to hold their word. Nothing is sure at the birth of democracy.